This data is taken from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. They have a decent chart showing the amount of water in Kachess reservoir here (and shown to the right). They have complete source data for download here.
Unfortunately it has a few deficiencies:
This mini website attempts to help answer those questions and give some insight into the lake level. It's almost certainly overkill analysis for what any normal person would care about, but I needed to refresh some technical skills, and this was an interesting data set to play with.
The USBR has a metric called "kac_fb" which is "Reservoir Surface Elevation, feet". This is almost exactly what we want. Unfortunately the data begins in 6/3/2017. So what I wanted to do is figure out the relationship between surface elevation and "kac_af" - Reservoir Water Storage (volume), which we have for the entire period.
A simple and accurate way to figure out this relationship is with a regression analysis. Explaining how that works is beyond the scope of this site, but for those who are interested, here are the results of that analysis.
kac_fb = 2,193 + 0.0004*kac_af + -0.00000000038*kac_af^2
feetdown = -1 * (max(kac_fb) - kac_fb)
Dep. Variable: | kac_fb | R-squared: | 1.000 |
---|---|---|---|
Model: | OLS | Adj. R-squared: | 1.000 |
Method: | Least Squares | F-statistic: | 2.887e+07 |
Date: | Fri, 06 Sep 2024 | Prob (F-statistic): | 0.00 |
Time: | 12:00:43 | Log-Likelihood: | -9036.2 |
No. Observations: | 27273 | AIC: | 1.808e+04 |
Df Residuals: | 27270 | BIC: | 1.810e+04 |
Df Model: | 2 | ||
Covariance Type: | nonrobust |
coef | std err | t | P>|t| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
const | 2193.0100 | 0.011 | 1.95e+05 | 0.000 | 2192.988 | 2193.032 |
kac_af | 0.0004 | 1.63e-07 | 2317.671 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
kac_af_squared | -3.803e-10 | 5.54e-13 | -686.466 | 0.000 | -3.81e-10 | -3.79e-10 |
Omnibus: | 67919.230 | Durbin-Watson: | 0.641 |
---|---|---|---|
Prob(Omnibus): | 0.000 | Jarque-Bera (JB): | 6273461199.641 |
Skew: | -26.229 | Prob(JB): | 0.00 |
Kurtosis: | 2352.008 | Cond. No. | 1.85e+11 |
Field | Description | Data Start | Data End | Number Records |
---|---|---|---|---|
kac_af | Reservoir Water Storage, acre-feet | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,276 |
kac_fb | Reservoir Water Surface Elevation, feet | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,273 |
fb_predict | Predicted surface elevation (Added) | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,276 |
fb_predict_err | Prediction error (Added) | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,273 |
feetdown | Feet down from maximum (Added) | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,276 |
kac_qu | Estimated Average Unregulated Flow, cfs | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,236 |
kac_qd | Average Stream Discharge, cfs | 1/1/1950 | 9/5/2024 | 27,237 |
kac_mm | Average Air Temperature, degF | 4/1/1978 | 9/5/2024 | 10,416 |
kac_pc | Cummulative Precipitation, inches | 5/31/1984 | 9/5/2024 | 14,624 |
kac_pp | Daily Total Precipitation, inches | 1/1/1978 | 9/5/2024 | 17,024 |
Maximum Lake Level | Minimum Lake Level | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Date | Feetdown (ft) | Volume (acre-feet) | Date | Feetdown | Volume |
1950 | 7/2/1950 | -0.7 | 240,890 | 10/4/1950 | -27.4 | 128,810 |
1951 | 6/15/1951 | -0.8 | 240,840 | 8/18/1951 | -29.5 | 121,320 |
1952 | 5/29/1952 | -0.8 | 240,710 | 10/10/1952 | -38.6 | 90,750 |
1953 | 6/18/1953 | -0.6 | 241,750 | 1/1/1953 | -36.7 | 96,810 |
1954 | 6/26/1954 | -0.8 | 240,340 | 10/11/1954 | -17.6 | 165,350 |
1955 | 6/13/1955 | -0.3 | 243,030 | 10/3/1955 | -21.1 | 151,750 |
1956 | 7/3/1956 | -0.8 | 240,340 | 4/10/1956 | -25.0 | 137,340 |
1957 | 5/9/1957 | -0.0 | 244,720 | 10/15/1957 | -43.1 | 76,450 |
1958 | 6/11/1958 | -5.1 | 219,440 | 1/1/1958 | -35.7 | 100,230 |
1959 | 6/23/1959 | -0.5 | 242,250 | 9/18/1959 | -18.0 | 164,050 |
1960 | 6/17/1960 | -0.4 | 242,800 | 10/15/1960 | -27.7 | 127,620 |
1961 | 6/19/1961 | -0.4 | 242,850 | 10/10/1961 | -29.2 | 122,140 |
1962 | 6/18/1962 | -0.3 | 243,120 | 10/9/1962 | -28.6 | 124,400 |
1963 | 5/23/1963 | -0.1 | 243,990 | 10/10/1963 | -38.1 | 92,170 |
1964 | 7/8/1964 | -0.0 | 244,580 | 1/1/1964 | -30.4 | 118,110 |
1965 | 6/14/1965 | -0.4 | 242,390 | 9/28/1965 | -26.5 | 132,000 |
1966 | 6/13/1966 | -1.2 | 238,440 | 10/14/1966 | -30.2 | 118,820 |
1967 | 6/26/1967 | -0.3 | 243,030 | 10/12/1967 | -25.6 | 135,160 |
1968 | 2/28/1968 | -2.1 | 234,230 | 10/11/1968 | -26.9 | 130,500 |
1969 | 6/10/1969 | -0.1 | 244,260 | 12/31/1969 | -19.4 | 158,500 |
1970 | 6/24/1970 | -0.8 | 240,660 | 10/15/1970 | -28.1 | 126,250 |
1971 | 7/20/1971 | -0.6 | 241,620 | 12/31/1971 | -22.2 | 147,810 |
1972 | 8/8/1972 | -0.7 | 241,220 | 1/6/1972 | -22.2 | 147,540 |
1973 | 1/1/1973 | -9.0 | 201,510 | 9/20/1973 | -59.5 | 27,810 |
1974 | 7/19/1974 | -0.7 | 241,210 | 1/1/1974 | -49.0 | 58,190 |
1975 | 7/16/1975 | -1.3 | 238,250 | 1/1/1975 | -31.1 | 115,600 |
1976 | 6/21/1976 | -0.4 | 242,800 | 10/21/1976 | -18.7 | 161,230 |
1977 | 5/4/1977 | -1.7 | 236,040 | 9/28/1977 | -41.5 | 81,330 |
1978 | 6/6/1978 | -0.0 | 244,672 | 10/13/1978 | -20.6 | 153,600 |
1979 | 5/16/1979 | -0.3 | 243,074 | 11/1/1979 | -61.7 | 21,651 |
1980 | 6/27/1980 | -14.4 | 178,295 | 1/1/1980 | -48.0 | 61,373 |
1981 | 4/30/1981 | -0.8 | 240,391 | 10/5/1981 | -33.8 | 106,662 |
1982 | 5/17/1982 | -1.1 | 239,127 | 1/1/1982 | -27.1 | 129,629 |
1983 | 6/1/1983 | -1.2 | 238,633 | 11/1/1983 | -30.7 | 116,980 |
1984 | 5/31/1984 | -1.3 | 238,212 | 10/13/1984 | -29.9 | 119,733 |
1985 | 6/20/1985 | -1.4 | 237,665 | 10/7/1985 | -51.1 | 52,190 |
1986 | 6/7/1986 | -5.1 | 219,489 | 10/25/1986 | -62.0 | 21,060 |
1987 | 6/11/1987 | -16.0 | 171,986 | 10/14/1987 | -61.7 | 21,700 |
1988 | 6/29/1988 | -17.3 | 166,492 | 10/13/1988 | -61.2 | 23,280 |
1989 | 6/6/1989 | -10.2 | 196,213 | 10/18/1989 | -47.4 | 63,190 |
1990 | 6/10/1990 | -0.7 | 241,342 | 1/1/1990 | -32.6 | 110,608 |
1991 | 5/24/1991 | -1.4 | 237,755 | 10/20/1991 | -39.0 | 89,260 |
1992 | 5/21/1992 | -4.6 | 221,750 | 10/19/1992 | -60.9 | 24,030 |
1993 | 5/22/1993 | -25.1 | 136,910 | 10/31/1993 | -62.6 | 19,360 |
1994 | 5/13/1994 | -33.9 | 106,040 | 10/18/1994 | -62.7 | 18,920 |
1995 | 8/2/1995 | -4.8 | 220,640 | 1/1/1995 | -47.6 | 62,420 |
1996 | 2/12/1996 | -1.7 | 235,945 | 9/24/1996 | -58.8 | 29,750 |
1997 | 7/10/1997 | -0.9 | 239,935 | 1/1/1997 | -43.1 | 76,320 |
1998 | 5/25/1998 | -0.8 | 240,754 | 10/22/1998 | -42.6 | 77,902 |
1999 | 8/4/1999 | -1.0 | 239,567 | 1/1/1999 | -28.5 | 124,661 |
2000 | 7/10/2000 | -1.1 | 238,935 | 10/17/2000 | -34.2 | 105,120 |
2001 | 5/27/2001 | -17.0 | 168,009 | 10/10/2001 | -62.6 | 19,355 |
2002 | 7/7/2002 | -0.9 | 240,295 | 1/1/2002 | -47.7 | 62,150 |
2003 | 6/18/2003 | -1.4 | 237,710 | 10/16/2003 | -53.0 | 46,396 |
2004 | 6/22/2004 | -18.1 | 163,570 | 10/15/2004 | -52.3 | 48,646 |
2005 | 5/25/2005 | -17.4 | 166,330 | 9/30/2005 | -60.6 | 24,788 |
2006 | 7/22/2006 | -14.4 | 178,380 | 1/1/2006 | -50.7 | 53,138 |
2007 | 6/19/2007 | -1.1 | 239,070 | 10/15/2007 | -34.0 | 105,760 |
2008 | 7/3/2008 | -1.2 | 238,620 | 1/1/2008 | -25.8 | 134,334 |
2009 | 6/20/2009 | -1.2 | 238,620 | 10/16/2009 | -36.1 | 98,840 |
2010 | 7/11/2010 | -2.9 | 229,870 | 10/19/2010 | -30.3 | 118,549 |
2011 | 7/25/2011 | -1.1 | 238,800 | 10/17/2011 | -26.4 | 132,114 |
2012 | 7/8/2012 | -1.2 | 238,710 | 10/15/2012 | -25.6 | 135,314 |
2013 | 6/20/2013 | -1.1 | 238,935 | 10/11/2013 | -26.4 | 132,342 |
2014 | 6/2/2014 | -1.2 | 238,755 | 10/16/2014 | -31.7 | 113,607 |
2015 | 4/6/2015 | -1.1 | 238,845 | 10/29/2015 | -56.8 | 35,576 |
2016 | 5/19/2016 | -1.1 | 238,845 | 10/14/2016 | -40.5 | 84,532 |
2017 | 6/15/2017 | -1.1 | 238,890 | 10/17/2017 | -36.6 | 97,300 |
2018 | 6/19/2018 | -1.1 | 238,845 | 10/15/2018 | -38.1 | 92,428 |
2019 | 6/17/2019 | -5.4 | 217,852 | 10/15/2019 | -56.7 | 35,772 |
2020 | 6/25/2020 | -4.2 | 223,620 | 1/1/2020 | -46.0 | 67,417 |
2021 | 6/7/2021 | -1.6 | 236,350 | 10/21/2021 | -33.9 | 106,293 |
2022 | 6/20/2022 | -1.2 | 238,439 | 10/23/2022 | -34.1 | 105,366 |
2023 | 6/27/2023 | -8.7 | 203,026 | 11/1/2023 | -62.2 | 20,391 |
2024 | 6/16/2024 | -24.8 | 138,098 | 1/1/2024 | -52.7 | 47,264 |